Preseason Rankings
Alcorn St.
Southwestern Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-14.8#346
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.6#191
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-8.7#346
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-6.1#336
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 6.5% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 10.6% 40.9% 10.0%
.500 or above in Conference 29.8% 56.0% 29.3%
Conference Champion 2.5% 10.0% 2.4%
Last Place in Conference 23.1% 7.2% 23.4%
First Four0.9% 6.5% 0.8%
First Round0.4% 1.7% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulsa (Away) - 1.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 0.90.0 - 0.9
Quad 1b0.0 - 0.90.0 - 1.8
Quad 20.1 - 2.30.1 - 4.1
Quad 30.3 - 3.80.4 - 7.9
Quad 47.4 - 10.37.8 - 18.2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 98   @ Tulsa L 61-80 2%    
  Nov 16, 2018 83   @ Vanderbilt L 59-80 2%    
  Nov 18, 2018 159   @ Kent St. L 64-79 5%    
  Nov 23, 2018 155   @ Liberty L 58-73 6%    
  Nov 24, 2018 353   Savannah St. W 85-82 61%    
  Nov 26, 2018 21   @ Mississippi St. L 56-84 0.4%   
  Dec 18, 2018 187   @ UAB L 62-76 8%    
  Dec 21, 2018 250   @ South Florida L 61-71 14%    
  Jan 05, 2019 243   Texas Southern L 70-80 28%    
  Jan 07, 2019 297   Prairie View L 70-77 37%    
  Jan 12, 2019 335   @ Jackson St. L 62-65 30%    
  Jan 14, 2019 296   @ Grambling St. L 69-76 20%    
  Jan 19, 2019 344   Mississippi Valley L 71-72 58%    
  Jan 21, 2019 332   Arkansas Pine Bluff L 67-70 49%    
  Jan 26, 2019 325   @ Alabama St. L 69-74 25%    
  Jan 28, 2019 349   @ Alabama A&M W 67-66 43%    
  Feb 02, 2019 343   Southern L 67-68 57%    
  Feb 09, 2019 335   Jackson St. L 62-65 50%    
  Feb 11, 2019 296   Grambling St. L 69-76 37%    
  Feb 16, 2019 344   @ Mississippi Valley L 71-72 38%    
  Feb 18, 2019 332   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff L 67-70 31%    
  Feb 23, 2019 325   Alabama St. L 69-74 46%    
  Feb 25, 2019 349   Alabama A&M W 67-66 63%    
  Mar 02, 2019 343   @ Southern L 67-68 38%    
  Mar 07, 2019 243   @ Texas Southern L 70-80 14%    
  Mar 09, 2019 297   @ Prairie View L 70-77 21%    
Projected Record 7.8 - 18.2 6.9 - 11.1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.5 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.4 2.5 1.6 0.4 0.1 6.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.0 1.6 0.4 0.0 7.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.1 2.0 0.3 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 3.0 5.0 2.4 0.4 0.0 11.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.7 5.4 2.3 0.3 0.0 12.6 7th
8th 0.3 1.6 4.6 5.0 2.3 0.3 14.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.9 5.6 4.8 2.1 0.3 16.3 9th
10th 0.7 2.5 4.3 4.2 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 15.5 10th
Total 0.7 2.5 4.9 7.3 10.1 11.2 11.6 11.4 10.6 9.0 6.9 5.2 3.7 2.4 1.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 90.7% 0.4    0.3 0.1
15-3 69.5% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 46.4% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 25.0% 0.6    0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0
12-6 7.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 67.1% 67.1% 16.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 63.9% 63.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
16-2 0.4% 17.6% 17.6% 16.0 0.1 0.4
15-3 0.6% 17.2% 17.2% 16.0 0.1 0.5
14-4 1.4% 14.3% 14.3% 16.0 0.2 1.2
13-5 2.4% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 0.2 2.2
12-6 3.7% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.1 3.5
11-7 5.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 5.1
10-8 6.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 6.9
9-9 9.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.0
8-10 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.6
7-11 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.4
6-12 11.6% 11.6
5-13 11.2% 11.2
4-14 10.1% 10.1
3-15 7.3% 7.3
2-16 4.9% 4.9
1-17 2.5% 2.5
0-18 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%